Crisis in the Caucasus – Russian Perspectives

I didn’t want to post each article, rather, I’ve supplied links instead to what I regard as informative analysis and for a change, from a Russian perspective on the upheavals since Georgia’s insane attack on South Ossetia.

2008-09-05
Pyotr ISKENDEROV
The Serbian Front in the War Over the Caucasus
“At the moment, we are witnessing the onset of the third phase of the war over the Caucasus. In the nearest time, we should expect the West to make attempts to outplay Moscow in the energy business by complicating its involvement in key international oil and gas transit projects…”

2008-09-05

Georgia: the First Step Towards Chaos Control (II)

“In all likelihood, preparations for the second phase of the US operation aimed at destabilizing the post-Soviet space are underway. Its start is tentatively scheduled for September-October, 2008 and will probably be marked by a new Georgian invasion of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, this time with the direct US support… At the same time, a provocation such as a murder of Russian sailors or a blow-up of a Russian warship will be organized in Sevastopol, the result being a civil war in Ukraine and a direct military conflict between the country and Russia…”

Impact of Five-Day War on Global Energy
The brief armed conflict in South Ossetia will have long-lasting and serious repercussions globally. The infrastructures of the energy sector have been particularly affected by the crisis. It is hard to say at the moment whether fundamental changes in the energy landscape of the Caspian and Middle East regions should be expected, but the immediate character of the reaction of exporters and transit countries shows that the military factor is bound to play a bigger role in assessing both individual energy projects and the potentials of entire regions in the global energy politics.

Georgia: the First Step Towards Chaos Control (I)
Over the past several weeks, the Russian-language expert community has published a number of worthy analytic papers addressing on a decent theoretical level practically the entire range of aspects of the conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia as well as of the overall geopolitical and economic picture of the world transformed by the August, 2008 five-day war.

The West’s Monopoly on Injustice: the Conclusions of the EU Snap Summit By Elena PONOMAREVA
The date of the snap EU Summit which focused no so much on the conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia as on condemning Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia – September 1 – was truly symbolic. World War II began in 1939 also on September 1.

Future of State System By Aurobinda MAHAPATRA (India)
The developments in this year would likely generate a huge turning process in international political order. With the rise in aspirations of regions to get independent, their recognitions amidst contestations the state system vogue almost for three and half centuries has received a jolt, especially with the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia and earlier that of Kosovo.

Raiders in Action By Irina LEBEDEVA (USA)
The Soviet disunion, the fall of the communist regimes, and the dissolution of the Eastern bloc made the actual purpose of the existence of NATO obscenely obvious. NATO is an organization acting as the global raider.

Abkhazia: the Independence Paid For by Sufferings By Aleksander B. KRYLOV
“Russia has officially recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The extremely difficult 15-year-long period in the lives of the two Republics, during which they had to exist as unrecognized states, is over. Now their international status has changed fundamentally. Another no less obvious circumstance is that after Russia’s recognition of the two new countries the problems of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are no longer regional – for years to come, they are going to play an important role in the politics of global powers…”

The Long-Awaited Decision By Irina LEBEDEVA (USA)
“No serious comments were made by the major US media on August 25 when the Russian Parliament asked the Russian President to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As for the Russian Parliament’s address to the Parliaments of UN countries and to international parliamentary organizations, in which Russia’s position concerning the Caucasus was detailed — it was ignored by the global media completely…”

Georgia’s Economy: myths and reality By Valerian Advadze (Georgia)
Once Georgia’s economy successfully integrated into the common Soviet system of production, it exported 26% of its products to other republics of the Soviet Union. At the same time, 28% of all goods consumed in Georgia were imported from outside. It means that Georgia was less autonomous than other republics.

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